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June 6, 2016: Newsletter Summary
We update the newsletters published in the past four months to our newsletter collection.
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May 30, 2016: Swensen Portfolio And Permanent Portfolios
David Swensen’s lazy portfolio allocates funds to directly combat inflation, deflation and for long term growth, very similar to permanent portfolio concept. We discuss how to construct various portfolios based on the framework and using (long term) inflation-protected securities (TIPS).
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May 23, 2016: AAII Article And Some Web Changes
AAII computerized investing features MyPlanIQ. We also list some of recent web changes we made on our supported portfolios.
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May 16, 2016: The PIMCO (Dis)Advantages
We discuss the pros and cons of several enhanced index funds from PIMCO.
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May 9, 2016: Boost Your Dull Summer Investments
Smart cash can go a long way, even for your sell in may and go away strategy.
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May 2, 2016: Low Cost Index Fund Investing
We discuss fees in investing and believe that low fee index investing is the way to go.
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April 25, 2016: Tax Free Municipal Bond Funds & Portfolios
We discuss tax free municipal bond funds and introduce their tactical portfolios.
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April 18, 2016: Asset Class Trend Review
We review recent major asset class trends. Our analysis indicates that the recent rally was more induced by the Federal Reserve’s dovish rate policy than any fundamental.
- Recent Factset S&P earnings report says earnings in Q1 will be down
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April 11, 2016: Construction of Sound And Conservative Portfolios
We propose a simple way to construct conservative portfolios that can be the bedrock of your investments to cope with volatile markets.
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April 4, 2016: Performance Comparison Between Strategic And Tactical Allocation
Our performance comparison indicates that the tactical portfolios actually have done better than the strategic portfolios for the past 5 years.
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March 28, 2016: Total Return Bond ETFs Review
We review the two active total return bond ETFs.
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March 21, 2016: Small And Large Company Stock Performance In Different Economic Expansion Cycles
Small and large cap stocks behaved quite differently in early and late economic expansion cycles. We looked at the past 25 year history and discussed current situation.
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March 14, 2016: Are Tactical And Timing Strategies Losing Steam?
We review the recent performance of tactical asset allocation and long term timing based portfolios and point out the last one year severe underperformance. However, long term, these portfolios still deliver better risk adjusted terms.
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March 7, 2016: Defined Maturity Bond Fund Analysis
Smart rebalance when market trend changes can yield better returns than a fixed rebalance schedule
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February 29, 2016: Smart Strategic Asset Allocation Rebalance When Market Trend Changes
Smart rebalance when market trend changes can yield better returns than a fixed rebalance schedule
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February 22, 2016: Be Cash Smart
Being cash smart by utilizing banking services in a brokerage and investing wisely.
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February 15, 2016: Bond ETF Portfolios
We review total return bond ETFs and found DoubleLine TOTL is somewhat disappointing so far. We also review other multi-sector active bond ETFs.
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February 8, 2016: Newsletter Collection Update
We update our newsletter collection that classifies our past newsletters into several categories.
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February 1, 2016: Total Return Bond Fund Portfolios In A Volatile Period
We discuss total return bond funds and their associated portfolios. We also compare PIMCO short term bond fund (whose manager was named as Morningstar Fixed Income Manager of the Year in 2015) with Vanguard short term bond index fund.
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Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio Long Term Performance
This is the latest update (as of 12/31/2015) of the performance of Harry Browne’s permanent portfolio. In 2015, the portfolio had a negative -4.5% return. Since 1970, for the past 46 years, the average compound annual return of the permanent portfolio has been 8.35%. Harry Browne proposed the concept of permanent portfolio in his Fail-Safe Investing book in 1999. In the book, he showed the performance table of his ‘permanent portfolio’. The following table incorporated Harry Browne’s performance and the new performance since 2003. As of 12/31/2015: 1970 4.10% 1980 22.10% 1990 -0.70% 2000 2.70% 2010 11.92% 1971 13.40% 1981 -6.20% 1991 11.50% 2001 -1.00% 2011 8.16% 1972 18.70% 1982 23.30% 1992 4.00% 2002 7.20% 2012 5.5% 1973 10.60% 1983 4.30% 1993 12.60% 2003 13.76% 2013 -3.8% 1974 12.30% 1984 1.10% 1994 -2.40% 2004 6.64% 2014 7.6% 1975 3.70% 1985 20.10% 1995 16.60% 2005 8.01% 2015 -4.5% 1976 10.10% 1986 21.70% 1996 5.20% 2006 10.80% 1977 5.20% 1987 5.30% 1997 6.70% 2007 11.94% 1978 15.00% 1988 3.60% 1998 7.40% 2008 -2.03% 1979 36.70% 1989 14.80% 1999 4.70% 2009 9.64% Cumulative 328.62% 272.57% 186.24% 190.27% Annual 12.63% 10.55% 6.42% 6.64% Since 1970 8.35% The highlighted portion is from Browne’s book (page 81) and the rest is from MyPlanIQ’s Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio. Notice there is some discrepancy for performance between 2000 to 2002. This is because in MyPlanIQ’s portfolio, Vanguard funds and Gold ETF (GLD) are used while in Browne’s calculation, he uses the following: Stock results are for an S&P 500 Index mutual fund, including reinvestment of dividends. Bond results are for a 30-year T-bond, including interest received. Gold results are for American Eagle 1-ounce coins. Cash results are for Treasury bills, assuming a 1-year bill was bought at start of each year. Cash in MyPlanIQ’s Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio is modeled using 3 month Treasury bill’s returns. We will continue to update this table as time goes. See also Permanent Global Portfolio ETF Plan Permanent Portfolio ETF Plan
