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April 23, 2012: All Weather Portfolio Construction
Re-balance Cycle Reminder We just had a reblance today (April 23, 2012). Based on our monthly re-balance calendar, the next re-balance time will be on Monday, May 28, 2012. You can also find the re-balance calendar of 2012 on ‘My Portfolios’ page. As a reminder to expert users: advanced portfolios are still re-balanced based on their orig…
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April 16, 2012: Markets At A Juncture
Re-balance Cycle Reminder Based on our monthly re-balance calendar, the next re-balance time will be on next Monday, April 23, 2012. You can also find the re-balance calendar of 2012 on ‘My Portfolios’ page. As a reminder to expert users: advanced portfolios are still re-balanced based on their original re-balance schedules and they are n…
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April 9, 2012: My Investment Accounts & Allocation Templates
Re-balance Cycle Reminder Based on our new monthly re-balance calendar, the next re-balance time will be on Monday, April 23, 2012. You can also find the re-balance calendar of 2012 on ‘My Portfolios’ page. As a reminder to expert users: advanced portfolios are still re-balanced based on their original re-balance schedules and they are no…
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April 2, 2012: Current Economic and Market Fundamentals
Re-balance Cycle Reminder Based on our new monthly re-balance calendar, the next re-balance time will be on Monday, April 23, 2012. You can also find the re-balance calendar of 2012 on ‘My Portfolios’ page. As a reminder to expert users: advanced portfolios are still re-balanced based on their original re-balance schedules and they are no…
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March 26, 2012: A Few Good Sources To Help On Deciding Risk Profiles
Re-balance Cycle Reminder Based on our new monthly re-balance calendar, the next re-balance time will be on Monday, April 23, 2012. You can also find the re-balance calendar of 2012 on ‘My Portfolios’ page. As a reminder to expert users: advanced portfolios are still re-balanced based on their original re-balance schedules and they are no…
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March 19, 2012: Should You Be Religious On Your Investment Strategies?
Re-balance Cycle Reminder We just had a re-balance for March today. Based on our new monthly re-balance calendar, the next re-balance time will be on Monday, April 23, 2012. You can also find the re-balance calendar of 2012 on ‘My Portfolios’ page. As a reminder to expert users: advanced portfolios are still re-balanced based on their orig…
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March 12, 2012: Setting The Right Risk Profile
Re-balance Cycle Reminder Based on our new monthly re-balance calendar, the next re-balance time will be on next Monday, March 19, 2012. You can also find the re-balance calendar of 2012 on ‘My Portfolios’ page. As a reminder to expert users: advanced portfolios are still re-balanced based on their original re-balance schedules and they ar…
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March 5, 2012: Multiple Strategies Using Portfolio of Portfolios
Re-balance Cycle Reminder Based on our new monthly re-balance calendar, the next re-balance time will be on Monday, March 19, 2012. You can also find the re-balance calendar of 2012 on ‘My Portfolios’ page. As a reminder to expert users: advanced portfolios are still re-balanced based on their original re-balance schedules and they are not…
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February 27th 2012: Core Satellite Portfolios And Static Portfolios
Re-balance Cycle Reminder Based on our new monthly re-balance calendar, the next re-balance time will be on Monday, March 19, 2012. You can also find the re-balance calendar of 2012 on ‘My Portfolios’ page. As a reminder to expert users: advanced portfolios are still re-balanced based on their original re-balance schedules and they are not…
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February 20th 2012: Fund Selection Algorithm Results
Re-balance Cycle Reminder Based on our new monthly re-balance calendar, the next re-balance time will be on Monday, March 19, 2012. You can also find the re-balance calendar of 2012 on ‘My Portfolios’ page. As a reminder to expert users: advanced portfolios are still re-balanced based on their original re-balance schedules and they are not…
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February 13th 2012: Static (Lazy) Porfolios and Re-balance Utility for My Actual Holdings
Re-balance Cycle Reminder Today is the re-balance day of February. Based on our new monthly re-balance calendar, the next re-balance time will be on Monday, March 19, 2012. You can also find the re-balance calendar of 2012 on ‘My Portfolios’ page. As a reminder to expert users: advanced portfolios are still re-balanced based on their origi…
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February 6th 2012: Current State Review
Re-balance Cycle Reminder Based on our new monthly re-balance calendar, the next re-balance time will be on next Monday, February 13, 2012. You can also find the re-balance calendar of 2012 on ‘My Portfolios’ page. Current State Review Economies & Markets As we entered the New Year, U.S. economy has shown some sign of stronger recovery. However, we are also seeing many under currents. The following are some key observation:
- Unemployment rate: last Friday’s BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) reported on this important economic indicator generated quite some controversies. In general, we see a reasonable but not fantastic number from this report. See Unemployment Rate: Commonsense Interpretation for more details.
- S&P 500 companies earnings: based on a Reuters’ report, this is the weakest showing since Q4 2001: of the 184 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings for Q4 2011, only 59% beat expectations. See S&P 500 Earnings Continue To Be Uninspiring
Risk assets have risen steadily. S&P 500 SPDR SPY had a year to date return 7.17% as of 2/3/2012. Signs of strong risk appetite include:
- Small cap out performs large cap so far: Asset Class Trends: U.S. Small Cap Stocks Outperform
- Cyclical sectors did better than defensive sectors: see US Sectors Trend table on 360° Market Overview
- Carry trade is back in vogue: Asset Class Trend: Carry Trade Is Back Among Currencies
- Long term treasury bonds are weak: iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond TLT lost 3% so far this year, as opposed to some strength in high yield bonds (HYG returns 1.45% YTD, not the strongest for sure).
- All of risk assets are now ranked higher than cash (SHV) in our major asset trend table on 360° Market Overview, even though both International Developed stocks (EFA) and commodities (DBC) are still ranked below total U.S. bond index (BND).
On the negative side, stock volumes have been anemic, to say the least. Interesting readers are referred to various zerohedge.com’s reports such as Volumeless Equity Recovery Ignores Broad Risk Asset Derisking on this subject. Whether this is the strong trend turning point remains to be seen. But markets are tilted to risk taking side up to now. Model Portfolio Performance Many users have asked us to provide regular updates on how our portfolios have been doing. We would like to present the following two links for those who care to track down our Featured ETF Portfolios (performance data will be updated daily, you can bookmark these links for future reference): Featured ETF Porfolios Strategic Asset Allocation (TAA) Performance Comparison Featured ETF Porfolios Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) Performance Comparison The following is the table for TAA performance (including year to date): TAA Portfolio Performance Comparison (as of 2/3/2012) Portfolio/Fund Name 2012 YTD 1Yr AR 1Yr Sharpe 3Yr AR 3Yr Sharpe 5Yr AR 5Yr Sharpe Vanguard ETFs Tactical Asset Allocation Moderate 3.18% 3% 29% 10% 74% 9% 58% Permanent Global Portfolio ETF Plan Tactical Asset Allocation Moderate 3.08% 10% 90% 12% 91% 9% 64% Six Core Asset ETFs Tactical Asset Allocation Moderate 2.84% -0% -3% 9% 77% 8% 59% Retirement Income ETFs Tactical Asset Allocation Moderate 1.8% 4% 34% 10% 80% 7% 55% MyPlanIQ Diversified Core Allocation ETF Plan Tactical Asset Allocation Moderate 4.55% 1% 6% 11% 87% 10% 73% The following is the table for SAA performance (including year to date): Portfolio Performance Comparison (as of 2/3/2012) Portfolio/Fund Name 2012 YTD 1Yr AR 1Yr Sharpe 3Yr AR 3Yr Sharpe 5Yr AR 5Yr Sharpe Vanguard ETFs Strategic Asset Allocation Moderate 5.75% 2% 10% 14% 84% 4% 18% Six Core Asset ETFs Strategic Asset Allocation Moderate 5.82% 3% 18% 17% 104% 5% 21% Retirement Income ETFs Strategic Asset Allocation Moderate 4.07% 2% 15% 16% 102% 2% 8% Permanent Global Portfolio ETF Plan Strategic Asset Allocation Moderate 6.24% 3% 22% 16% 106% 5% 28% MyPlanIQ Diversified Core Allocation ETF Plan Strategic Asset Allocation Moderate 5.06% 3% 20% 17% 116% 5% 27% So far, SAA portfolios have out performed their TAA counterparts. Latest Articles
- S&P 500 Earnings Continue To Be Uninspiring
- 401K Investments: More Diversification Needed In Tyco International Retirement Savings and Investment Plan
- Unemployment Rate: Commonsense Interpretation
- Stock Investment Strategy: Momentum Stocks Combined With Low Volatility Stocks
- Mutual Fund Asset Allocation: PIMCO Global Multi-Asset Fund Steady In Risk Asset Exposure
- Asset Class Trends: Dividend Stocks Are Still Solid In Risk Assets
- 401K Investments: Low Cost and Diversification in Google 401K Plan Paid Off
- ETF Review: Cambria Global Tactical ETF (GTAA) Turning Bullish In Stocks
- History of Financial Crisis Infographic
- 401K Investments: State Street Salary Savings Program
- Asset Class Trends: U.S. Small Cap Stocks Outperform
- How do you measure how far out of balance a portfolio is?
- Asset Class Trend: Carry Trade Is Back Among Currencies
- S&P 500 Golden Cross: How Much Does It Deliver?
- Is Your Brain a Barrier to Smart Investing?
- Americans Want To Save And Invest For Retirement, ICI Survey Found
How can we improve this newsletter — we value your inputs –Thanks to those who have already contributed — we appreciate it. RSS Feed Disclaimer: Any investment in securities including mutual funds, ETFs, closed end funds, stocks and any other securities could lose money over any period of time. All investments involve risk. Losses may exceed the principal invested. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. There is no guarantee for future results in your investment and any other actions based on the information provided on the website including, but not limited to, strategies, portfolios, articles, performance data and results of any tools. All rights are reserved and enforced. By accessing the website, you agree not to copy and redistribute the information provided herein without the explicit consent from MyPlanIQ.
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February 6th 2012: Current State Review
Re-balance Cycle Reminder Based on our new monthly re-balance calendar, the next re-balance time will be on next Monday, February 13, 2012. You can also find the re-balance calendar of 2012 on ‘My Portfolios’ page. Current State Review Economies & Markets As we entered the New Year, U.S. economy has shown some sign of stronger r…
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January 30th 2012: Top 401K Plans’ Portfolio Review
Re-balance Cycle Reminder Based on our new monthly re-balance calendar, the next re-balance time will be on February 13, 2012. You can also find the re-balance calendar of 2012 on ‘My Portfolios’ page. Plan Updates We are changing some ETF plans’ fund choices: 1. Six Core Asset ETFs: We are replacing Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VE…
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January 30th 2012: Top 401K Plans’ Portfolio Review
Re-balance Cycle Reminder Based on our new monthly re-balance calendar, the next re-balance time will be on February 13, 2012. You can also find the re-balance calendar of 2012 on ‘My Portfolios’ page. Plan Updates We are changing some ETF plans’ fund choices: 1. Six Core Asset ETFs: We are replacing Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU) with Vanguard Europe Pacific ETF (VEA) to better reflect the asset class of international (or foreign) developed country stocks. 2. Permanent Global Portfolio ETF Plan: We are replacing Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU) with Vanguard Europe Pacific ETF (VEA) and, Dow Jones REITs (IYR) with Vanguard REIT Index (VNQ). 3. Permanent Portfolio ETF Plan: Similarly, we are replacing Dow Jones REITs (IYR) with Vanguard REIT Index (VNQ). The above changes will be effective in the next re-balancing cycle. For portfolios that have held replaced ETFs (such as IYR), you might want to continue to hold them even if the re-balance instructions say to replace them with the new ETFs (such as VNQ) to reduce trading. Notice at the moment we don’t know what rebalance instructions for the next re-balance will be. Year End Review: Top 401K Plans’ Portfolios We review the performance of portfolios in the Fortune Top 10 Company 401K Plans table on page Retirement 401K, 403B, 457. These plans represent some of largest 401K plans offered by companies. Notice by default, funds in a 401K plan has a 3 month minimum holding period. All performance data are through 12/30/2011. Plan (2011, TAA) AR Sharpe Draw Down Beta Exxon Mobil 4.5% 0.57 5.0% 0.10 The J.P. Morgan 4.0% 0.47 5.1% 0.08 The Bank of America 3.9% 0.36 9.8% 0.27 Ford Motors 1.3% 0.14 7.0% 0.24 Hewlett Packard 1.2% 0.12 7.5% 0.18 AT&T 1.1% 0.17 4.9% 0.09 ConocoPhillips 0.0% 0.00 8.2% 0.13 Wal-Mart -2.9% -0.32 9.6% 0.24 Chevron -4.6% -0.51 10.3% 0.26 General Electric -4.9% -0.64 9.9% 0.21 Plan (2011, SAA) AR Sharpe Draw Down Beta The Bank of America -0.2% -0.03 8.0% 0.30 Ford Motors -1.1% -0.10 10.8% 0.44 Chevron -1.3% -0.10 11.5% 0.51 Exxon Mobil -1.7% -0.11 13.7% 0.66 ConocoPhillips -1.7% -0.15 12.4% 0.46 AT&T -1.9% -0.19 11.1% 0.41 General Electric -2.2% -0.18 12.5% 0.52 Hewlett Packard -3.4% -0.28 12.7% 0.50 Wal-Mart -4.4% -0.36 11.8% 0.47 The J.P. Morgan -4.6% -0.29 15.5% 0.66 Overall, the model portfolios in these 10 plans did reasonably well in 2011. In fact, they are doing better than those Brokerage Mutual Fund Portfolios. The main reason is again due to the fact that Brokerage Mutual Fund Portfolios offer more invesetment choices in asset classes such as international stocks, emerging market stocks and foregin bonds. The presence of these ‘extra’ funds/assets distracted performance in 2011. On the other hand, most 401K plans actually don’t have many investment choices as those brokerage plans. This actually helped their portfolios’ performance. In a longer term, however, one can see that more choices will help to deliver better risk adjusted returns. Finally, a word on minimum redemption holding period restriction: we would like to encourage our users to furnish us more accurate information on your plans so that our TAA and SAA strategies can have more flexibility to re-balance. This proved to be an important performance factor in 2011. Market Overview Gold (GLD) rose most last week. It is now ranked on the top spot in he major asset trend table on 360° Market Overview. Equity continued their rise, though the momentum has definitely slowed down. We are stil not seeing uniform risk asset up trends though. U.S. REITs (IYR, VNQ) continued their strong trends. Keep in mind, however, IYR is more volatile than S&P 500 (standard deviation in 2011: IYR 24% vs. SPY’s 22%). When broad stock markets experienced weakness, REITs ETFs can retreated in a much faster pace. On the other hand, as what we pointed consistently in the past two years, U.S. REIT companies have used ultra low rate environment to refinance their debts and they are generally in much better balance sheets right now. Investors’ yield hunger and inflation fear do provide some support for these stocks. We are approaching to final Greek and eurozone’s debt resolutions in the coming months. Market volatility will be here to stay. We urge cautious portfolio allocations at the moment. Latest Articles
- 401K Investments: High Quality Funds In WINDSTREAM 401(k) PLAN
- Debt, Uncertainty and Volatility in 2011
- Brokerage Investment Plan Review: Fidelity Commission Free ETFs Plan
- 401K Investments: AT&T Long Term Savings and Security Plan
- Asset Class Trends: Global Stock Recovery Is Still Too Early To Tell
- U.S. New Home Sales Historical Charts
- Brokerage Mutual Fund Plan Review: Etrade All Star Funds
- Gold Tree InfoGraphic
- ETF Reviews: U.S. High Yield Bond ETFs
- Fed Meetings: Laughing All The Way To The Top
- Ansys Employees Retirement Program Review
- Amana Income Stocks Paid Off Handsomel
- Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio vs. Permanent Portfolio Mutual Fun
- $ ?s: How to rake in millions by running your own investment fun
- Lazy Portfolio & Their Active Allocation Portfolio Review
How can we improve this newsletter — we value your inputs –Thanks to those who have already contributed — we appreciate it. RSS Feed Disclaimer: Any investment in securities including mutual funds, ETFs, closed end funds, stocks and any other securities could lose money over any period of time. All investments involve risk. Losses may exceed the principal invested. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. There is no guarantee for future results in your investment and any other actions based on the information provided on the website including, but not limited to, strategies, portfolios, articles, performance data and results of any tools. All rights are reserved and enforced. By accessing the website, you agree not to copy and redistribute the information provided herein without the explicit consent from MyPlanIQ.
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MyPlanIQ Retirement Investment Newsletter Archive
Please follow the following link for any MyPlanIQ newsletters before January 30, 2012. MyPlanIQ Retirement Investment Newsletters Archive
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January 23rd 2012: Lazy Portfolio & Their Active Allocation Portfolio Review
Re-balance Cycle Reminder Based on our new monthly re-balance calendar, the next re-balance time will be on February 13, 2012. You can also find the re-balance calendar of 2012 on ‘My Portfolios’ page. San Francisco Gathering — Follow up We are getting good response from our users on the San Francisco Gathering proposal. So far, 10 user…
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January 17th 2012: Brokerage Specific Mutual Fund Portfolios Review
Re-balance Cycle Reminder Based on our new monthly re-balance calendar, the next re-balance time will be on February 13, 2012. You can also find the re-balance calendar of 2012 on ‘My Portfolios’ page. San Francisco Gathering Some users in the city of San Francisco are interesed in getting together to discuss MyPlanIQ and in general, inv…
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Asset Class Trend: Large Cap Growth Stocks Stand out
In this volatile and uncertain environment, proper asset allocation is the first step to ensure safety for a long term retirement investment (such as a 401K, 403B or variable annuity) portfolio. The second step is to decide what to invest in each asset identified in the first step. It has been well recognized that high quality, multi-national large cap growth companies are the place to invest in equity portion of a portfolio. The following table shows how U.S. stock styles stack up currently. Assets Class Symbols 12/06 Trend Score 11/29 Trend Score Direction Russell Largecap Growth IWF 3.25% -1.19% ^ Russell Largecap Index IWB 2.85% -2.09% ^ Russell Largecap Value IWD 2.67% -2.83% ^ Russell Smallcap Growth IWO 2.51% -4.92% ^ Russell Smallcap Index IWM 2.01% -5.33% ^ Russell Midcap Value IWS 1.68% -3.36% ^ Russell Midcap Indedx IWR 1.56% -3.5% ^ Russell Smallcap Value IWN 1.53% -5.94% ^ Russell Midcap Growth IWP 1.49% -3.47% ^ The trend score is defined as the average of 1,4,13,26 and 52 week total returns (including dividend reinvested). Large cap growth stocks are usually those high quality (stable cash flow, higher earnings growth) companies. Russell Large Cap Growth ETF (IWF) has the following top 10 holdings: Company Symbol % Assets Apple Inc. AAPL 5.44 Exxon Mobil Corporation Common XOM 4.50 International Business Machines IBM 3.51 Microsoft Corporation MSFT 2.92 Google Inc. GOOG 2.32 Coca-Cola Company (The) Common KO 2.04 Philip Morris International Inc PM 1.89 Oracle Corporation ORCL 1.85 Schlumberger N.V. Common Stock SLB 1.57 Pepsico, Inc. Common Stock PEP 1.56 Most of them are multi-national companies that derive revenues worldwide. See also High Quality Stock ETN: Morningstar Wide Moat Focus
